New Hampshire: Does it Mirror the Nation?

One of the knocks on the Iowa caucuses, among many, is that Iowa does not resemble the nation’s demographics, so why should it go first and carry so much weight? How about New Hampshire? Does it better mirror the nation’s demographics?

The New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, Feb. 11  is the first in a series of nationwide party primary elections and the second party contest held in the United States. It’s part of the process of choosing the delegates to the Democratic and Republican national conventions which choose the party nominees for the presidential elections to be held the subsequent November.

All eyes will be on New Hampshire as it has reliably predicted both the Democratic and GOP nominees. That said, WallletHub, the personal finance website, compared the Granite State’s demographic characteristics and public opinions with those of the U.S. to determine: How Closely Does New Hampshire Resemble the U.S.?

Its data set of 31 key measures includes sociodemographic, economic, educational and religious metrics as well as public stances on certain issues.

Key Findings

• The Overall Resemblance Index for New Hampshire is 82 and for each category are: Sociodemographics: 84; Economics: 89; Education: 92; Religion: 61; and Public Opinion: 84.
• Consider that 60% of New Hampshire-primary winners have won the Democratic party nomination and 80 percent the Republican party nomination. The New Hampshire primary, therefore, is a much better predictor of advancement for Republicans than for Democrats.
• New Hampshire least resembles the U.S. in terms of race, with a 41.30 percent difference; religious composition, with a 58.20 percent difference; belief in God, with a 60.00 percent difference; and importance of religion in one’s life, with a 64.00 percent difference.
• New Hampshire most resembles the U.S. in terms of the ratio of part-time to full-time employees, with a 99.50 percent similarity; gender, with a 99.49 percent similarity; average workweek length, with a 99.22 percent similarity; and household makeup, with a 99.20 percent similarity.

For the full report, please click here.